Martin Jacques- Understanding China

May 7th, 2012

I attended an afternoon session hosted by the World Trade Center where Martin Jacques presented his thoughts on China (while I did not see his talk at TED, here is the link. There were some interesting insights that I had not considered, such as:

  • China is not a national country in the Western sense, but a cultural country, routed in a prevailing civilization paradigm that transforms nationalism into something that is much broader and deeper than in the West. The implication is that overseas Chinese see China in much stronger terms than most expatriates do when they go overseas.
  • China is very diverse and depends upon decentralization to maintain its unity, something that they strive to maintain.  For example, look at Hong Kong, the one country, two system approach is still working.
  • China remains a developing country, which changes the relationship of economic flows to/from the region over the next thirty years.
  • State is seen as the guardian of the Civilization of the Chinese state, and has more power and authority than in the West as it is seen as more of a caretaker, and not an advisory/intruder.
  • Dr. Jacques mentioned his book, which he is now revising, as the Chinese State is so rapidly changing, institutionally, etc., but still in a very Chinese way.
  • We can never understand China fully by viewing it with a Western concept of democratic, economic and cultural norms, especially as the past two hundred years the legacy of Western imperialism has lead to a devaluation in the need to understand developing world cultures and norms.

You can view more informtion on his book “When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order”.

How Did Containerization Shape US – Port Markets?

April 2nd, 2012

We often take for granted the opportunists and choices afforded to us through globalization.  But the irony is that most people do not necessarily understand how containerization not only changed ports and shipping by landside competition and port market areas.

For example, here is a great video on the development of containerization from TED- Called “How Containerization Shaped the Modern World”. (Which is in contrast to a text based approach used by the World Shipping Council.  One can see the spread of containerization trades through the world’s ports here.

But not only did containerization change the physical movement of cargo, it changed how that cargo could be handled across modes.   Years ago the lack of adequate landside transportation to inland regions limited a shipper’s choice in determining which ports to use.  Even today, some region around a given port is considered to be “local or captive”, as the cost of using another port and shipping the product may be prohibitive.  For example, a shipper based in Washington State would not ship his containers through a California port only to reposition these containers back to Seattle if a service to Seattle was available at a viable cost.  In contrast, discretionary cargo can be handled at multiple ports. Data on the top 25 ports in the U.S. are posted here.

A port’s competitive position is defined by the markets that the port serves.  The old axiom “ships go where the cargo is” is highlighted by the growth of certain ports, such as New York, Los Angeles/Long Beach, which have large local markets for containerized services, but also for ports along the gulf coast for their proximity to petroleum sources.  Before containerization, ports had natural inland hinterlands that generated and received cargo.

If the cargo can be handled efficiently at more than one port, the shipper and/or carrier can choose which port best suits their unique needs, as is the case with shipments destined to Chicago from Asia. In the U.S., shippers can route the cargo through the U.S. west coast or east coast, depending upon service and costs requirements. The balance of local versus discretionary cargo has shifted over the past twenty years.  The adoption of intermodalism, the deregulation of the U.S. transportation system in the 1980’s, and innovations in logistics management have placed additional demands upon the transportation system, but have also opened up new markets for various ports.

Since the 1980s, railroad reforms (including the Staggers Act) made it possible for railroads to engage in expanded services to international shippers and other logistics firms.  The result is that rail intermodal traffic, consisting of both domestic and international containerized freight (Container on Flat car (COFC) or Trailer on Flat Car (TOFC)), is becoming one of the leading commodities carried on the U.S. rail network.  The majority of the containers move on the U.S. in the double stock COFC format, which allows for basically a doubling of rail capacity when compared to TOFC operation.  The increasing share of intermodal rail movements has been supported by trucking companies and other integrated carriers as railroads have begun offering more consistent and reliable services.

Today, intermodalism, combined with global supply chains, allows shippers more options in selecting production-distribution activities, including how these supply chains utilize gateway ports. Shippers primarily route cargo with the goal of maximizing the returns on their transportation dollar (this applies equally to intermodal or general cargo operations). The chief concerns in selecting a particular route involve price and service, but other factors are equally important. Some of these factors are: what types of  vessels call a particular port, what additional services are available in a  port area, the availability of rail or inland connections, and how does the  port fit it to existing distribution patterns. However, the flexibility shippers now enjoy means to some extent ports have lost some of their monopoly power. Today, ports are part of a larger system and the lengthening of supply chains (due to globalization) implies the relative importance of each node becomes diminished by the growth of alternative routings between markets.

While intermodalism did not develop because of investment by shippers, these groups have profited from the additional service and options intermodalism provides them.  The costs associated with developing transportation activities are partially absorbed by the transportation industry, as evidenced by the historically poor rates of returns on transportation assets.  Thus, shippers want speed and reliability, but expect these services at competitive prices.   Over time, the costs of logistics as a share of Gross Domestic Product has fallen to roughly 17% in the early 1980s to roughly 8% of the U.S. economy in 2009 ( Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, 2010).  This has occurred at the same time the growth in total U.S. spending on transportation for all modes exceeded $1.1 Trillion dollars.

Today, containerization is not necessarily about logistics and cargo, but how will we handle the larger ships now plying the world’s oceans?  There are many things that have to be considered when preparing a terminal for a larger berth, including equipment, terminal capacity and marshalling areas, but also the potential for the ship to physically arrive at a port. While the Panama Canal expansion is underway, many ports in the U.S. are struggling to get deeper channels, which means that vessels can call U.S. ports with more cargo, thus lowering per unit costs to shippers.  AT the same time, we are concerned about the simple lack of dredging, especially in the Mississippi, which can reduce cargo, and add costs to U.S. firms exporting.

In many ways, one man, with vision can change the world, but it takes others who are able to  embrace new  ideas and technologies for change to really occur and a lot of people to support how these innovations can continue to benefit a nation long after they have been initially adopted.

 

 

 

 

Who is Responsible For Infrastructure

February 23rd, 2012

Going through my files, I found a carton that I had saved concerning infrastructure in the United States. The Non-Sequitur carton (posted at http://www.gocomics.com/nonsequitur/2011/10/09) pokes fun at the inactivity of Congress to consider funding infrastructure. In the cartoon, the dam literally splits while  Congress-Man, perched on the dam, simply observes the conditions.  (Remember Katrina?)

The real issue is not that Congress-Man is unwilling to commit, but probably that we as a society are not demanding anything to be done.  According to the Council of Supply Chain Managers, the US spent 1.2 Trillion on logistics in 2010, roughly 8-9% of our GDP.  At the same time, we spent roughly 5% of our total Government spending on transportation infrastructure (all modes and levels of Government), which equates to roughly 2% of the US GDP.  In this context, the US spends 10% of its GDP on transportation and infrastructure.  And while the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) continues to rate the poor condition of infrastructure in America, the financial, permitting, and other even agreement on what transportation should do for the Country remains in a state of uncertainty.  While its easy to blame Congress, we could also blame ourselves.

ITTS Newsletter – January 2012

January 20th, 2012

Greetings:

I hope everyone had a wonderful Holiday and are in the process of breaking or ignoring their New Year’s Resolutions. Here is the January 2012 Newsletter!
The swing of the new year finds me planning for my third “Freight in the Southeast” Conference.  I am putting the touches on hopefully another great meeting, and look forward to seeing everyone on March 14-16, 2012 in Norfolk, Virginia.  You can learn more about the conference at http://www.ittsresearch.org/ITTS_2012_conference.html.

ITTS Conference
Trade with North Korea
What is… Longshoreman
Lambert’s Lagniappe
News Update

Hope all is well with everyone!  And I look forward to seeing you in Norfolk.

Bruce

Do Rankings Influence A City’s Business Attraction?

December 13th, 2011

MarketWatch just ranked Washington as the top city for doing business (based on 102 cities with populations exceeding 500,000 people).  (You can read the report here.)

How did the Southeast fair?  Well, not very good, as only Richmond, Durham, Nashville, and Raleigh were listed in the top 25 cities.  New Orleans was the fastest growing cities on the index (you can read their take on this here).  Based on their rankings, the Southeast region did better in the Company position (based on how companies contribute to local economies), but not the economy position (employment, jobs, wages, etc.).

This is somewhat contrary to the various reports about the business climate in the Southeast has been improving, as discussed by various Site Selection and business rankings. This suggests that there are many different ways to look at business activities.  In the long term, businesses tend to focus on traditional site selection criteria (workforce skill sets and availability, incentives, transportation and access to costumers) but it can be argued that any business ranking reflects what has already occurred, based previous legislative and business climate.   The real question is what are these regions doing now to  improve their rankings, based on the collective actions of both the public and private sectors.  2012 does not appear to be shaping up as a barn burner, so working on strengthening existing regional business ties will become more important.

 

Christmas Trees a Click a Way- A New Way to Retail?

December 2nd, 2011

USA Today ran an article about fresh Christmas Trees that are purchased online.  The article suggests that while a small portion of the overall Christmas tree market, it indicates once again how dependent we have become upon purchasing our products online, ultimately relying upon  logistics and transportation systems to meet our expectations (and compressed schedules).  (We can add that to growing list of other things one can purchase online, as well as costs associated with internet based business sales taxes!)

From a transportation framework, I do not know if the trees are actually cut later to the shipping date, ensuring a fresher tree than sold at a traditional Christmas tree lot, or if they were cut at the same time and are sent to a warehouse location.  I will have to research that a little more!

We are witnessing the transformation of retailing and shopping, which can bear out concerns for the future of transportation.  There exist discussions that the traditional shopping and strip mall may not be as viable in the future, which is evident by  many firms limiting store front merchandise with online catalogs (are we back to the general store with a clerk in the front and clerks running in the stacks to bring your goods?).  It is also unclear what this will mean for retail land development.

One thing to remember, be safe this Holiday.  Any Christmas tree could catch on fire, as attested by this video by “Tom Heinl – Christmas Tree On Fire” or Cledus T. Judd “This Trees on Fire“.  In fairness, the National Christmas Tree Association argue about benefit of real versus  artificial trees here including the question of flammability.

ITTS Newsletter- November

November 28th, 2011

Got the November newsletter finished, and posted online.    Hope you enjoyed reading about trade agreements and my usual updates!!

Bruce

Congestion and Corridors- It is growing!!

November 28th, 2011

Recently, Texas Transportation Institute issued The 2011 Congested Corridors Report.   By using a corridor as a three mile stretch, they look at traffic flows along 328 corridors.   Of these corridors, which accounted for 6 percent of the nation’s total freeway lane-miles but generated 36 percent of the urban freeway congestion.  They also accounted for 8 percent of truck activity, but 33 of truck freeway delay.  As with other studies, they note that it is unreliability more so than simply traffic volumes itself that places a greater burden on the traveling public.
The growing spread of congestion and its influence on traffic is not necessarily new, as both Federal Highway Administration and American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) have estimated trucking bottlenecks in the past.

 

Clearly, as traffic congestion occurs.  TTI suggests that solving congestion is not necessarily a single problem, but would take many solutions.  In this regards, they are correct, although most people see this as a federal response to local planning and transportation decisions.  Unfortunately, I think the locals are going to have be more aggressive in finding solutions to congestion despite discussions in MAP-21 and TIGER programs.   (Curious if this will be discussed at the talking freight on MAP-21 in a few weeks.)

 

The Story Matters

October 5th, 2011

Recently, I listened to “Tell to Win: Connect, Persuade, and Triumph with the Hidden Power of Story” by Peter Guber on audiobook (who has time to read?).  In the book, Mr. Guber lays out  how knowing your audience, having a clear message, and getting others to believe your story are critical for any successful project.  Based on his long career in the entertainment industry, he has quite a few stories to tell (and he does like to drop names, so you have been warned…).  The irony about telling stories depends upon knowing what you want to tell and how you want to resonate with your audience.  Clearly, in the discussion about the future of the American economy and values, we can all paint various pictures of the American we want to live in: one that expresses our own belief about the “What” of the American Experience.

In reflected in the value of story, I have found that we struggle with the story of transportation:  is it a story about livable cities and sustainable local communities connected by high-speed rail or airplanes, a story of freight mobility and global supply chains, or a story of balancing reducing environmental concerns while balancing emissions/land use activities.  (Some of these topics related to putting freight into the planning story were discussed at the APA session organized by Noel Comeaux.)

In every framework, the story depends upon what motivates you and you audiences.  Several years ago, I read “The Southern Advantage: Why You Should Consider Doing Business in the Worlds Fourth-Largest Economy”  by J. A. Hollingsworth Jr.  Its a fairly quick read, and was written prior to the recent economic collapse, but his message still remains:  the Southern U.S. is open for business.  A recent issue discusses some of the trends Mr. Hollingsworth addresses concerning regional manufacturing.  The story about manufacturing remains a mixed bag as the region shifted from textiles to autos but certain Southeastern States, such as South Carolina and Kentucky have large portions of the economies tied to manufacturing.

The question now is: Can we find a story about transportation that balances all this conflicting storyline about jobs, the environment, trade, mobility and sustainability, in a manor that fits within in the new reality of constrained budgets?   This story should include discussions on who pays, and why, as well as what the obligations are between various parties.  The recent decision of Virginia to toll I-95 as well as other discussions concerning heavier or larger trucks (truck productivity) suggest that the real meaning of transportation depends upon your own desire for the system you want.

But this is not a new question, as Thoreau brought up the following in “On Walden“:

To make a railroad round the world available to all mankind is equivalent to grading the whole surface of the planet. Men have an indistinct notion that if they keep up this activity of joint stocks and spades long enough all will at length ride somewhere, in next to no time, and for nothing;

Given the complex framework of transportation, sometimes I think we have ended upon in legal morass where all transportation projects seem to fall into a “design, approve, and defend” process.  Clearly, the role of planning, with its many different groups, should inspire the formulation of a regional or local vision that follows more the lines of “partnership, approve, benefit”.

The role of the story, or vision, is necessary for realigning our expectations regarding transportation.  Maybe Mr. Guber can make a movie about that…

 

Energy Policy and Transportation

August 15th, 2011

In discussing the future of transportation, it is important to understand that large part of the U.S. transportation involves the movement of energy.  But it is in the use of that energy that we are able to enjoy “the American way of life”.   It is clear that the availability of energy will largely shape our economic future.

Here is a new video from the PACE Institute. http://unpluggedmovie.com/  (I met with Lance Brown when he was filming this video in New Orleans and he spoke at the  ITTS Conference in Memphis.)   He raises the question that new energy policies should not ignore the costs to consumers when considering new options.  Such considerations are important, especially when considering new policies.

This does not necessary appear to be a contrast to the broader question about the future of energy, as highlighted http://www.theoildrum.com/ or by Chris Martenson.  Mr. Martenson suggests we are past peak oil, and the future of energy will dramatically change over the next twenty years from increased competition and misaligned expectations regarding energy policies and availability.  (This was one of the four scenarios “One World Order” outlined in discussed at the AASHTO/Freight Partnership meeting.

These discussions about energy production and use suggest that a discussion on energy, ranging  consumer and business costs, cargoes carried and mode, to social costs (externalities) of transportation (emissions, noise, etc.) such as in GAO report 11-134,  and pipeline safety, are just as relevant when discussing energy policy as is the creation of the energy itself.